In today’s water dispense market, the headline figures suggest maturity, but the underlying dynamics tell a more complex story.  Akos Petri, managing director of Zenith Global Commercial, explains how operators that focus on strengthening their core business, creating more value from existing customers and expanding into higher-growth segments are the ones outperforming the market. His perspective outlines where growth is really coming from and how companies can position themselves to capture it.

At first glance, the water dispense market in Europe and the US looks like a mature, slow-moving category. For more than three decades, our teams at Zenith have tracked an active base of roughly 15 million units across the two regions, encompassing bottled water dispensers (BWD), point-of-use (POU) systems and integrated tap solutions, and combining both rented units in service and systems sold during the year. Penetration is high in many core applications, routes are established, and in numerous markets growth sits in the low single digits. It is easy to conclude the market has stalled.

Yet on the ground, the story is more turbulent. While the whole category can appear flat in aggregate, many individual operators still deliver double digit annual growth. The gap is not effort or luck; it is architecture. The leaders who scale are not simply selling water. They are managing a portfolio across different channels and timeframes at once, protecting a profitable core, upgrading their best accounts and planting seeds for the next wave of demand. A useful way to structure that thinking is the Three Horizons of Growth framework.

Horizon 1: Optimising the core

Horizon 1 is the engine room: traditional 18.9-litre BWD and standard mains-fed POU systems in established channels. For many operators, that core has historically been workplace hydration but it also includes a wider mix: small businesses, education, healthcare, gyms and leisure sites, and, in some markets, a meaningful residential base.

In mature segments, this is no longer a land-grab; it is an efficiency war. The battleground is cost per stop. Labour, fuel, vehicle costs and service complexity keep pushing route economics upward, and in parts of Europe Low Emission Zones and access restrictions add friction to urban operations.

The operators who win Horizon 1 don’t chase every postcode. They build 'local fortresses' by narrowing their footprint, raising route density, and turning operations into predictable cash flow. That cash flow is not the end goal; it is the funding engine for the horizons that create the next cycle of growth. In practical terms, this means being brutally clear on what you are best at – the channel, the geography, the customer profile – and then out-executing everyone else inside that zone.

Horizon 2: Upgrading customers and channels

Horizon 2 is where the profit engine accelerates today. Growth is less about finding more customers and more about selling a better outcome to the customers you already serve, whatever channel they sit in.

In the US, many operators have stopped competing for the 'water budget' and started competing for the 'beverage budget'. Replace an office fridge full of costly canned drinks with a smarter hydration solution and the conversation moves from cheap rental to workplace upgrade. The client can see the difference immediately: fewer purchases, less waste, less hassle and a better employee experience.

But the upgrade story does not stop at the office door. One of the most underappreciated shifts right now is the rise of Horeca. It is still a smaller part of the installed base in many markets, which is exactly why it matters.

From a low base, growth can be rapid when the proposition is clear. Restaurants, hotels and cafes increasingly want to serve chilled and sparkling water that looks premium, aligns with sustainability messaging, and improves service speed. A well-positioned dispense solution can remove the clutter and handling of bottles, reduce storage headaches, and create a consistent guest experience.

In other words, it turns water from a commodity into a margin-supporting part of the brand experience. Operators who treat Horeca as 'just another placement' tend to struggle; those who package it as a service and experience upgrade can build a compelling, higher-value segment over time.

In Europe, the upgrade story is also increasingly design-led. Modern venues – offices, hotels, premium gyms and even high-footfall public spaces – are being built to feel like high-end homes: clean lines, minimal clutter, fewer appliances.

Integrated tap systems that deliver boiling, chilled and sparkling water from one point fit that direction perfectly. At that point, you are not selling a plastic box; you are installing a feature that clears space and signals quality. Frame it as an upgrade, and buyers stop benchmarking you against basic coolers and start comparing you to workplace and venue improvements that make the environment feel modern and intentional.

Horizon 3: Building for the future

Horizon 3 is about what you will be glad you started building before 2030. As consolidation continues, the dispenser becomes a Trojan horse into broader refreshment and service relationships. Future leaders won’t present as 'water suppliers' in a single channel. They will act as service managers across multiple settings – workplaces, hospitality, leisure, even light retail – with one accountable partner model.

In that world, the value is not primarily the liquid; it is trust: reliability, compliance, consistent service and predictable outcomes. Trust at scale requires infrastructure: service visibility, proactive maintenance, faster issue resolution and contract clarity.

Frameworks, however, do not win on their own. In a saturated market, positioning is what opens doors. The fastest-growing operators have changed the conversation: they stopped selling water and started selling solutions to stakeholder headaches.

To HR leaders, the story is wellbeing and performance. Even mild dehydration is linked to measurable drops in attention and cognitive performance, so hydration can be framed as a productivity input, not a perk.

To facilities and operations teams – whether in an office, hotel or restaurant – the story is space and simplicity: fewer appliances, less clutter, easier upkeep and smoother day-to-day operations. To owners and general managers, the story is brand and experience: a cleaner set-up, more consistent service and a more premium feel without complexity.

Finally, strategy sets direction, but service standards drive conversion. In 2026, online reputation is not a vanity metric; it is a sales force. Procurement is increasingly digital-first, and online proof becomes a shortcut for trust. The best operators treat reviews as a system: they invite every customer to leave a public review, make it easy, and follow up consistently, while using internal feedback workflows to resolve issues quickly.

Done ethically and platform-compliantly, reputation becomes a compounding asset that improves close rates, shortens sales cycles and strengthens your position in competitive tenders.

Conclusion: From ceiling to launchpad

The market is not stalled; it is evolving and reallocating growth to operators who can run all three horizons at once, across more than one channel.

Optimise the core, upgrade the customer base and treat rising segments like Horeca as a deliberate growth track, not a side quest. Do that consistently, and the 'mature' market stops looking like a ceiling and starts behaving like a launchpad.